Turnout

Now more people have voted for Liberal leader than voted in the last NDP or Conservative races. 

Turnout

As of 12:30pm today 91,894 people have voted for leader.  Since Tuesday about 8-10,000 have voted per day.  In 2004 the Conservatives had 97,397 people vote.  We're on track to have a higher turnout. 

Social Annoyance

The Hall-Findlay campaign has to be the most annoying campaign on social media.  I've dumped her from both facebook and twitter over the campaign for separate floods of posts.  Well-spaced posts that remind people that a campaign exists and keep followers interested are great.  Dozens of posts in the space of a few hours are annoying. 

Leadership Thoughts -- Connections

I joined the Liberal party as a result of Stéphane Dion's leadership victory speech, before then I had been wandering in the desert after the loss of the Progressive Conservative Party.  I had hoped after Dion's convention victory speech that he could put forward a clear and articulate centrist vision for the country.  I liked his environmental policies; I liked his views on Canadian federalism.  But it turns out, he couldn't sell his vision.  When not well planned in advanced, Dion's speeches were dry, if not unintelligible.  He would have made a great PM but there's no way he would become PM.

I had some hope when Ignatieff took over.  He was intelligent and more articulate than Dion, but he thought he was still in the classroom.  His speeches were too academic.

I used to support Marc Garneau.  I'm a geek.  He understands science and technology, but is still competent in other areas.  I think he'd be a great cabinet minister.  I don't think he can win an election.

George Takach seems to be too focused on technology, without sufficient vision in other areas.

I think Deborah Coyne has the best vision for the role of the federal government.  I'm a fan of a strong central government.

But, the truth is that policy is the second most important aspect for a leader.  Policy doesn't matter if you don't win an election.  You can't win an election if you can't sell your idea.  You can't sell your idea if you can't connect with people.  You can't connect with people if you can't excite them enough to listen in the first place.  The best policy in the world is useless in the opposition benches.  I'd rather have a Liberal government that's got acceptable policy over a Liberal opposition or third party with great policy.

Most of the candidates can connect with people better than the previous two leaders (excluding Rae who's pretty good at it), but Justin Trudeau is miles ahead of the rest of the pack when it comes to exciting people and connecting with them.  (As a side note: yesterday, Trudeau demonstrated an ability to deal with attacks, even personal ones, calmly and successfully, even turning the attack into a positive for himself.  That ability was another communication ability the last two leaders lacked.)

Recently, I went to a local event where Trudeau spoke.  Honestly, I wasn't all that excited myself by his speech, but looking around a packed room, it was clear he could draw people in, and that he connected with many in the room.  After the event, I overheard someone say, "I'll have to call my Dad and tell him I actually did something political".  If Trudeau can get people who have never been to a political rally before to show up at events, he's on his way to getting out his message, as imperfect as it may be.

I think elections are more about the leaders' personality than many would like to admit.  Humans connect emotionally and personally.  Harper uses fear to get peoples' attention and make them care.  With the fear slot taken, we'll have to go with exciting.  Many of the candidates are good.  They all have acceptable policies in my view.  No one is perfect.  So far, Trudeau is the only one who has demonstrated the ability to excite and connect with the new voters and previous Liberals that the party needs to win.

Ontario Leadership Campaign ... counting the days

I got four phone calls last night from Ontario Liberal leadership candidates. For the love of God, please stop. I'll support the candidate who doesn't call me.

Marc Garneau

Wow... there's a candidate a science geek can support.

Garneau seems to be a carefully spoken person, who will likely not be too gaffe prone.

I hope he can generate some excitement. Some work in the excitement area is needed.

Congrats to the NDP in Kitchener-Waterloo.  



From the Star.  "In Kitchener—Waterloo, New Democrat Catherine Fife, head of the Ontario Public School Boards’ Association, won with 40.7 per cent ahead of Tory Tracey Weiler at 31.1 per cent, Liberal Eric Davis at 23.6 per cent and Green Stacey Danckert at 3.4 per cent with 212 of 265 polls reporting."

Team McGuinty screwed up this by election.  Picking a fight with the teachers was a bad idea, and I suspect the dominos don't end with this result.